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IATA increase global airline profit forecast to $15.1bn

15.12.10

The International Air Transport Association has predicted the air travel industry will make $15.1 billion this year, in what is the latest change to its forecasts for 2010. At the beginning of the year IATA predicted the global aviation industry would make a multi billion dollar loss in 2010, but the industry body has since drastically changed its forecast.

The latest figure represents a rise of more than $6 billion on its previous in September, when IATA said the industry would make $8.9 billion in profit this year. The group predicted a loss of $5.6 billion at the start of the year, halved this in March, predicted a profit in June, increased this in September, and now again in December. Either the industry has enjoyed a massive turnaround in fortunes, or someone is not very good at forecasting !

Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s CEO, said: ‘Our profit projections increased for both 2010 and 2011 based on an exceptionally strong third quarter performance. Despite the strong figures, profit margins remain weak, and we still see the recovery pausing next year after a strong post-recession rebound. Margins remain pathetic. With a 2.7% net margin in 2010 shrinking to 1.5% in 2011, we are nowhere near covering our cost of capital. The industry is fragile and balancing on a knife edge.’

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